Principal Risk
A conservative investor wants to at least get back the original investment.
There are 10 sources of principal risk, the risk of loss of principal
- business
- currency (exchange rate)
- default (credit)
- financial
- inflation (interest rates)
- leverage
- liquidity
- market ("systematic")
- marketability
- reinvestment
Business
- beyond the control of the business (e.g., competition, new products)
- declining company sales &/or profitability
- hurts shareholders
Currency (exchange rate)
- changes in foreign exchange rates reduce returns
- when investments denominated in a foreign currency
- e.g., GE shares on NYSE: exchange loss if the US dollar falls relative to Canadian dollar
- cannot reduce by diversifying
Default (credit)
- company may be unable to make contractual payments to lenders
- interest, dividends or principal may not be paid or repaid as scheduled
Financial
- company may have severe financial problems
- e.g., collapse of Enron
- lenders and shareholders can lose
Inflation (interest rates)
- increases in inflation caused real returns to decrease
- for fixed income investments like bonds
- e.g., 10% bond sold in 12% environment → loss of principal
- marketable but not redeemable
Leverage
- if return on investment < cost of borrowing
- e.g., borrowing at 7% to earn 10%, but only earned 6%
Liquidity
- difficulty in buying/selling investments when you want (or at a fair price)
- ease of cashing investment with minimum principal risk
- e.g., CSB highly liquid but 5-year GIC may be illiquid (and unmarketable)
Market ("systematic")
- all assets in the class (e.g., stocks or bonds) could decline
- negative effect of economy-wide factors on market psychology and investor attitudes
- e.g., changes in interest rates, political events, real economic growth
- can't reduce by diversifying
- non-systematic risk: stock or sector moves against (contrary to) the market
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- can reduce by diversifying (e.g., with index fund)
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Marketability
- ease of selling an investment to another party
- e.g., common shares (but not redeemable)
Reinvestment
- for fixed income investments like term deposits, GICs, bonds
- if interest rates fall, must reinvest at lower interest rates
page revision: 4, last edited: 27 Jul 2007 03:02